This question was posed to me in the comment section of my Happy 2012 post:
Anonymous said...
How do u know all of that? When u say research what r u talking about?
Christopher Peterson said...
- I certainly do not know all of that for sure! Part of investing is making educated guesses. This post describes the way that I am approaching the markets for early 2012, what I believe will happen. I will remain flexible because changes can happen at any time. As far as research, I will be following the stocks that I feel have value and monitoring their prices. I will definitely be looking for stocks that are great trades and investments. I will be adding to my overall investing knowledge, reading books, viewing charts, testing new strategies, etc.. I will also be writing reviews and descriptions of the specific books that I have read in the coming year. This could possibly give you more insight into the specific things I look at when I'm referring to research. Thanks for your question!
What books r u basing these "educated guesses" on? Y do u think u know so much about Europe and what their situation is?
Thanks for your follow up question. I base my educated guesses on research that I have done and the news sources that I follow. I am certainly entitled to my opinion about everything under the sun. It is up to those who read what I write on 17and17 to decide whether they agree, disagree, or do not care about my opinion/educated guesses.
As far as the specific books I have read, like I said in my first reply I will be blogging about those in the future. I have already written one blog about one of my favorite websites to get financial information. I do not feel it is necessary to list the books I have read out. That would be silly.
I have not read a book on the European debt crisis; I do not know if anyone has written one. I have gleaned that information from the news and financial statistics available on the internet. Major countries in Europe have poor/unsustainable National Debt to GDP ratios. The following statistics are available on the International Monetary Funds website: National Debt to GDP ratios Germany - 83.96%, France - 82.33%, Italy - 119%, Spain - 60.12%, Portugal 92.92%, Greece 142.76%. These levels of debt are not sustainable obviously. The main problem is not that the European Union has high debt to GDP ratios, it is the fact that the countries in the EU have not passed stringent austerity measures and their national banks have not passed serious stress tests. The United States has a debt to GDP ratio of 94.36% which is way to high and also unsustainable. What separates the U.S. from the EU is the fact that the U.S. dollar is the world reserve currency so the U.S. Federal bank can control and manage U.S. to some extent with that power. The U.S. has vast natural resources that it is starting to tap into unlike western Europe. The U.S. has banks that have been stress tested after the 2008 CDO/Banking crisis and U.S. banks are in a strong position because of that. According to investor sentiment the U.S. is more likely to get its debt under control in the following years then the countries in the EU based on the more traditionally conservative fiscal values of the American citizenry as compared to more big government minded socialism minded European citizenry. Lastly, if you look at the bond sales of European Union countries the high rates clearly reflect the risk and fear associated with the European Union, the countries in the Union, their austerity, wiliness to push through financial reforms that add needed austerity, and weakness of the European Unions banking system.
That is the basic information that I based my 'educated guess' on as far as early 2012 and Europe. It seems obvious to me that there is just too much risk associated with the EU to be bullish about the market, (optimistic about world financial markets).
Tomorrow I will definitely return to much more basic information! This particular person seemed rather insistent about getting an in depth answer to their question, and I thought answering it in the form of a post would help any readers understand a bit of my thought process regarding investing.
So you choose not to answer the question of what books you have read to base such accusations about Europes financial situation on? You stated in previous posts that your claims were made off of educated guess in which your inferred from books and websites and when you're asked to back up such claims with your sources so your readers can reach the same conclusions and or their own you refuse to put the information out?
ReplyDeleteI provided sufficient information to back up my opinion. I also directly answered the question about exactly where I got information from when forming my opinion. If you are not aware of how to get finacial information, articles, figures on the internet, I have posted a blog about one site where you can find some of this information and I will add more posts about gathering information. Please do not be confused; this is not a history paper or SEC disclosure where I need to site sources. This is also not a job application where I need to list references or even answer any questions posed to me at all. I am not being vetted on this blog. This is a free blog and service where I post my views and opinions on investing. I hope to also educate some people about investing along the way.
ReplyDeleteI am more then happy to answer valid questions that are phrased in a polite manner. I do not have to disclose any information that I do not feel like disclosing. It is up to people who read my posts to decide whether they would like to continue reading my blog.
Since being patient, informative and polite is not working I guess we will just have to agree to disagree. Thank you for your questions.
I was not saying to site ur sources or even answer the question I was merely pointing out that your refusal to actually name a book you have read on the subject in any particular way was to simply put it odd. Also that you have a blog to vent your "educated guess" without any real way for us your readers to go and come to the same conclusions as you is also a bit on the odd side. You say that you would like to educate about investing but you will not disclose information that you do not wish to disclose? So you will vent and then sorta backhand educate me about things that I have no real proof that you know about? Sounds like your a poser wanna be. And I will assume that we can agree to disagree about that as well.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGood points! You absolutely correct that you have no proof of my level of education or back ground. Although 'venting' is not the term I would use to describe my vanilla opinions and very basic stock investing information blogs, you have a valid point there as well, and it may seem a bit odd to write about investing for no reason. (Not as odd as arguing about common investing knowledge and theory but I'll get into that later.) I started this blog so that my close friends and family can read my opinions and thoughts about these things. I left it open to the public.
ReplyDeleteI have certainly not wrote about anything controversial, all my blog posts are aimed at people, (my friends and family), who have little to no knowledge about investing. If people outside of that group would like to read what I have to say they are more then welcome to. They will be able to make up their own mind about the validity of my posts. I do not need to prove anything or provide any credentials because, 1. I am not selling anything. 2. I am not suggesting that anyone invest in a specific security. 3. If you vehemently disagree with any of the elementary uncontroversial posts I have made, what are your credentials? What expertise or education do you have to question common investing knowledge. I have never gone out on a limb or wrote about anything but basic fundamental investing information. The fact that you do not recognize this fact has me questioning the validity of your complaint.
Your quest to vet my credentials as the author of a FREE to create FREE to read blogspot blog goes beyond odd and into creepy and out right comical. If you feel that I am 'poser' or 'wanna be' then you should just come to that conclusion, keep it to yourself (that is called manners), and then read some other online content. After all no one specifically invited you to read this content, you were allowed to read it and then your questions were even answered in depth! But maybe you don't have anything going for you in life so you feel the need to question other peoples free blogs. Newsflash: I like the rest of the world do not owe you anything. I suggest that you go and take a college course if you would like someone to list off their credentials for you, not read a free blog that you are certainly not required to read. You will of course have to pay for a college course.
Thank you for the comments though, my friends and family have gotten a good laugh out of them! You actually wrote your ridiculous 'demands' and thoughts down so people can read it, money can't buy this type of entertainment.
First of all I didn't make the comment asking "how do u know" or "what r u talking about?" I was responding to the moderator's decision to not site books that he had read on the subject after he clearly stated that he had. If someone says they had read a book wouldn't you naturally ask what book? Also the fact that his educated guess that he is subjecting to the masses in an attempt to either educate and or vent is based off of said books without putting the name of them out there is a bit odd and it sounds like he is a lot of hot air. How can you expect to have an open dialogue when there is nothing to back up your claims and this secret book can't be read by all in the discussion? If you can not see that those are valid points of this argument maybe it is you that can't walk and chew gum at the same time.
ReplyDeleteI need credentials to ask what books you've read? Sounds like you are very full of yourself and maybe we all have learned our lesson about asking you any questions because it doesn't seem like you have that many answers.
ReplyDeleteI am not good at answering questions I already covered. For that I apologize, not everyone looks at every post on a blog from start to finish so that is my fault. From my very first post on this blog - "I am developing a strategy to position trade and swing trade securities. I am still new to the game so to speak; I know the basics. Every week I am learning more though and I will become an expert in time." (How could I be more full of myself then quoting myself!!!!) Guilty as charged on the full of myself about investing!
ReplyDeleteMaybe I need to clarify that I am not an expert every single time I write? I did not feel it was necessary because I clarified it the very first time that I posted a blog here. Now it has been clarified again.
I figured as long as I was not suggesting specific stocks/investments that little controversy would be attributed to my comments. Wrong.....
Finally, and hopefully once and for all, I will certainly be more then happy to provide information on investing books and research sources that I have read and used on future blogs. I will not write out a list of every book I have ever read on the subject or every article I have read, research I have done etc. because in my view I do not need to prove myself here, people can read or not read this stuff, and secondly that is silly. If you want to know more information about the books that I have read feel free to stay tuned as I will be writing reviews on most of them in future posts!
I enjoy the column. Anonymous, you sound like a troll. I am happy to say that and not be anonymous. Mr. Peterson has clearly stated that he is not an expert. He merely provides his own insight based on many different books and following the market closely for some time. Did you spend countless hours researching this information? What have you done for yourself at all, other than trolling someone's blog and try to insert a little drama as if this was a debatable topic? I am sure the answer is no to the research. As far as asking ridiculous questions as if only to get a rise out of the poster is your goal....there are plenty of teenage blogs out there to debate (you may even sound intelligent in one of those).
ReplyDeleteSince it appears you came to this blog to look for book advise and not actually read the posters opinions and thoughts on the subjects. I am going to provide you with 10 highly rated book, think of this as a going away present....
ReplyDelete1) The Intelligent Investor
2) One Up on Wall Street
3) The Essays of Warren Buffett
4) Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits & Other Writings
5) Security Analysis
6) How to be a Billionaire
7) The Interpretation of Financial Statements
8) 9 Steps to Financial Freedom
9) Use the News
10) Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks and Fraud
I agree with Anonymous attacking him just because you refused to name 1 book that you based your opinions off of is not at all right. I do enjoy reading the posts everyday as I feel as though I am learning right along with Mr.Peterson and that makes the process less intimidating. However In The Dark acting as some hitman for all those with opposing opinions or that just have questions is not right u lost a reader.
ReplyDeleteDRAMA!
ReplyDeleteI wish that being at work and studying the basics of Fundamental Analysis, "Getting Started in Fundamental Analysis" by Michael C. Thomsett was as exciting as the comments on this blog!
ReplyDeleteI'm not going to read this blog any more either! Just write it and post! Just kidding. People have keep it pretty civil but no more personal insults please. Thanks for all of the comments everyone!