Monday, February 27, 2012

Earnings Trading Chase...... FAIL!!!!!

Don't chase your own tail!!!
This earnings season I made a big mistake.  I chased after stocks because of their scheduled earnings reports.  Regardless of the future position of the stock that I was in I was selling out of good positions so that I could be in position to trade a new stocks earnings report.  This ended up costing me profits and to a lesser extent trading fees, (aka slippage). 

I have learned my lesson.  Earnings are not to be traded, there are too many variables and too much biased opinion attached to them.  From now on if something is working I will stick with it until it is not working anymore.  This strategy was abhorrent and did not yield any profits for me.  I will NEVER chase after earnings trades during earnings season again!

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Be patient, have conviction

Down 5, 6, 7, 8%?!?!?!!?!  Argghhh!!!
As you can see from the picture above I was not thrilled with the price drops of one of my stocks the day after it reported last week!  It went down 10% in one day!  That was a really scary ride! 

When that happens it is understandable to feel like panicking and then selling your stock as soon as possible.  Instead you should take a hard look at the numbers, and most importantly read the news associated with your stock and find the reason behind the dramatic price drop.  Most times the stock market over reacts to both good and bad news.  Usually stocks that get slaughtered one day will float back up to a higher price after they get sold off.  This is true for quality stocks especially and that is why I try my best to only trade quality stocks.

Because I do my homework, I trade quality stocks, and I didn't panic I was able to have enough conviction to stay in my stock after it went down.  I realized that it was an over reaction and now it has come back 6.38%.  I am hoping that because it is an over reaction that it will come all the way back and possibly even end up giving me a small gain by the end of next week.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Don't Trade Low Quality Stocks!

Trash goes in trash cans not in your portfolio.

I like to position trade.  In the future I may swing or day trade.  These types of market strategies are certainly more risky then value investing or income investing.  In order to limit my risk as much as possible I only work with the stock of good viable companies.  I will not trade a stock that has a garbage company behind it no matter how hot the stock is.

One of Jim Cramers rules for trading is, "Never let a bad trade turn into a bad investment".  This is a great rule.  If a trade goes against you then you need to sell out of it and maintain discipline.  What happens if you have a horrible trade that gaps down well past your trades exit point?  Well if it is a momentum stock with poor fundamentals and its multiple finally decides to start reflecting that fact then your in trouble.  At this point you will have to wait for the stock to float back up a bit so that you can sell it.  The price you get may be well below your exit point in some circumstances.  You will have no choice but to sell at this point, the stock had bad fundamentals and now the market has now turned against the stock and it will trend lower in the future.

If you only trade stocks that have good fundamentals and good a corresponding multiple, (PE ratio), if something catastrophic happens and the market crashes gaping down below where your exit price is you will have more options.  The price should recover much more then a stock with poor fundamentals.  You may also have the choice to just add the trade to your portfolio temporarily depending on what drove the price of the stock down dramatically. 

Trading the stocks of strong companies with great fundamentals is a great way to give yourself more options, trade from a position of strength, and most importantly sleep well at night.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Great Success!!!

Great Success!  Will now celebrate dancing!
The stock that I have for my current trade reported very good numbers after market close today!!!  That is exciting.  I can not wait to see how it does in the coming days and weeks.  Hopefully all of my hard work and research pays off!