Happy New Year!

 Happy 2012 everyone.  I have done some research and fortunately the theory that the world will end in December is untrue.  This theory is based on the Mayan calendar coming to an end as well as some other neolithic culture prediction nonsense.  I hope neolithic is the correct term for those guys I don't feel like googling that term right now.  The Mayans just ran out of room in their calender calculation, no end of the world imminent.

If the world did end it would be unfortunate because it would really mess up compound interest.  Plus all stocks except for AAPL, (Apple), would crash.  I'm long AAPL because even cockroaches are trying to buy iPhones and iPads these days.  (I don't own any shares of AAPL in actuality). Thankfully, the world won't end so no need to discuss that investing strategy any further.

For 2012 I am really bearish for the winter and spring.  As you can see by my picture I am still ready to attack 2012!!!  I will attack by learning more and positioning, not doing much trading at first though!  Things can change quickly but at this time I really think that we need a solution or capitulation for the situation with European debt.  I will be looking for this at the begging of 2012 and keeping my fingers crossed that there is a major 2008 - 2009 style pull back in the markets that allows me and mine to jump into the market at way lower levels.  That will take patience but it takes patience to invest.  There is a ton of risk out there right now and I disagree that it is "priced into the market".  How can you price a European Banking cataclysm into the markets?  Wouldn't the DOW be at like 7,500 or something like that?  The amount of capital in the EU is massive, a collapse of the Euro or European banking system would rock the financial world.  This would create a buying opportunity for those who were sitting in cash.

If I'm wrong and the markets stay in their trading range for the early part of 2012 we will be able to see the risk fall out of them as a solution to Europe is reached.  Then everyone can take their time and jump back into the market.

Another problem with the markets going forward into 2012 is that the BRIC countries, (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), are predicted to have a slow year.  This certainly isn't good for stocks. 

Way long term I am hoping that we can put this Euro junk behind us and with the U.S. economy starting to grow again hopefully we can have a good fall and holiday season in 2012.  This would be especially good if the market gets crushed by European issues to begin the year.  If stock prices are discounted because of foreign markets, the U.S. economy is growing, and there is some hope that the U.S. government will have a more capitalism friendly political system in 2013 due to the 2012 elections maybe we can move into a bull market!  Only time will tell.  Happy New Year, thanks for reading!

You need multiple families! Diversification.

To begin with if you saw the new version of the movie "The Step Father" and you haven't seen the old version from 1987, please see the 1987 version.  The actor who plays the Step Father in the 1987 version, the guy from 'Lost', does a way better job so the whole movie is way better.

Now that I got that out of the way on to the financial example from the movie.  In the movie, "The Step Father" a crazy killer has multiple families.  When one family starts to displease him he chops them all up, moves to a different town and then finds a new family.  This process repeats itself over and over family after family.  How awful of the Step Father!  He should have used this as a stock trading strategy instead.  Killing your family if they start to displease you or under perform in some way is terrible and twisted.  Killing a trade or investment when it starts to under perform or displease is a great strategy!

The Step Father also knows that he has to keep his options open.  He keeps a case of maps, IDs, and different physical looks that he can turn to when it is time for a new family.  As an investor make sure to keep your options open and be aware of different looks by diversifying your stock holdings.  Trust in the fact that the Step Father would have chopped up Enron's stock and moved in with Walmart and its kids long before any congressional hearings took place!

Remember diversify, and keep your options open, just like the Step Father when it comes to investing and trading.

Steal from your stocks, profit taking

The people who work for me are worthless.  I asked ten of them to help me figure out a movie where a family member steals from another family member or family members.  Somehow they started talking about Borat because Borat's traveling companion steals his bear and then they lost all focus because imitating Borat and trying to talk like him took over.

So for this example of functional relationship to stock ownership that is like a dysfunctional human relationship I will have to go with the A&E show, "Intervention".  Anyone who has ever watched this show for a few episodes can testify to the fact that sometimes family members steal from their family.  In the case of intervention this stealing is done for drug money, which is obviously sad and dysfunctional.

Stealing from your stocks is functional when it comes to investing however!  It is actually important to steal from your stocks by taking profits when you get a big gain in a stock.  Whether you have a trade that reaches your target price, or a stock in your portfolio that goes on a big run taking profits is an essential part of investing.  If you are trading it is important to take profits to maintain discipline and avoid a greedy over reaching trade where you end up losing some of your profit.  Taking a profit from a stock that is in your portfolio may be important so that your portfolio does not become unbalanced due to a surge in one particular stock.

Please remember a couple of things.  Make sure you steal your 'fix' money, PROFITS, from you stocks.  Profits do not count until they are actually in your bank account.  This is the only time they are real profits that have been secured.

Abusive behavior, hating your stocks; what's love got to do with it?

You have worked hard for the money that you have put into your stock holdings.  You have worked hard researching the stocks that you currently hold.  Even if you have a stock that is really great and the envy of other investors, it is best that you keep your emotions out of it.  You absolutely can not fall in love with a stock.  Falling in love can make you act really silly.  Lawerence Fishburn does not act silly in the movie, "What's Love Got To Do With It".  In his role as Ike Turner he lords over Tina Turner with an uncaring iron fist.  "SING THE SONGS LIKE I TOLD YA TO ANNA MAE!" Although that real life story is obviously disturbing, the relationship that Ike has with Tina is a good example of a relationship that you should have with your investments/stocks.

"Do you think you can sing the songs without Ike Anna Mae!?!?!", Ike tells Tina Turner in the movie after one solo performance.  We should think crazy and paranoid thoughts about your investment just like Ike thinks them about Tina.  It is always good to think about the worst case scenario when it comes to an investment.  That way you can always be prepared for the downside.

Ike physically abused Tina Turner horribly, proving for certain that he did not really love Tina.  After all who would beat up someone they are married to and supposedly love?!?!  Although we can not physically beat up our stocks, we certainly can guard ourselves against loving them.  "You just and ugly no talent piece of crap Anna Mae!".  I do suggest being verbally abusive to your stocks at least once a week.  Yelling at them will help you keep your distance emotionally and help remind you that there are no perfect investments or stocks.  No stock has a chart that goes up in a straight line.

"Have some of this delicious cake Anna Mae!", Ike says as he shoves cake into Tina's face in a public diner.  Ike knew that public humiliation would ensure that he kept his hate for Tina alive.  It is good to publicly humiliate your investment or stock from time to time by comparing it to similar stocks.  What do similar stocks margins, multiples, and growth look like?  This will keep you from feeling too much love for a particular investment.  There are usually similar investments/stocks out there, and sometimes they have even better returns!

When it comes to investing remember, love has nothing to do with it.

Stalk your stocks

A beautiful stock has moved into your online brokerage account.  This beaut has been making everybody money and can do no wrong!  Everyone loves this one and you actually own some shares!  Now that you have it you need to take a lesson from the movies, "The Crush", "The Roommate" or "Obsessed" and stalk the stock.

Are you creeping through all of your stocks belongings and personal information everyday?  Whose number is this on your stocks iPhone!?!? Just kidding!  Seriously you should be searching for news on your stock. Whether it is news related to your specific stock, the overall economy, or reading the companies public documents when they are released.  Sometimes you can even eavesdrop on your stocks company via phone by listening to conference calls!  That's creepy, but great stalking! 

A good stalker always knows when it is time to end the 'relationship', even if it only exists in their own head.  Stalking your investments will allow you to know right away if your investment's margins start to erode, the sector it is in starts to collapse or the CEO of a stock your invested in is caught huffing gold metallic spray paint. Then you will know that it is time to kill your current investment.  This can be done with poison, pushing the stock off of a cliff or you could just place a sell limit order and end the relationship that way.

When it comes to stock investing, show your obsessive and clingy side, stalk your stocks.

Developing a functional relationship with your stocks week.

This coming week I will be writing blogs about developing a healthy relationship with your stocks.  A healthy relationship with your stock correlates to a very unhealthy or dysfunctional relationship with a real person.  I will give examples of how to develop a profitable relationship with your stocks by highlighting examples of horrific human relationships from movies.  Hopefully these outlandish human relationships will help all of us remember some very important rules about the stocks we hold and the way we should feel about them and invest in them.

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to everyone.  Thank you for reading my blog!  I am thankful for each and every person who visits 17and17.


I am working today for 14 hours.  Although I would certainly like to spend Christmas day with my family it is important to build up investing capital.  I have worked out a budget for 2012 and I have some lofty but acheivable goals.  I will have to work hard this coming year, and that includes working holidays.  No matter how much your yearly salary is, no matter your age, please take advantage of budgeting and planning.  Without mastering these two fundamental money management skills achieving your finacial goals will not be possible.

In the end we can know everything there is to know about investing, but for most of us it will take hard work and planning to achieve wealth and financial security.

Do not trade low quality stocks

I like to position trade.  In the future I may swing or day trade.  These types of market strategies are certainly more risky then value investing or income investing.  In order to limit my risk as much as possible I only work with the stock of good viable companies.  I will not trade a stock that has a garbage company behind it no matter how hot the stock is.

One of Jim Cramers rules for trading is, "Never let a bad trade turn into a bad investment".  This is a great rule.  If a trade goes against you then you need to sell out of it and maintain discipline.  What happens if you have a horrible trade that gaps down well past your trades exit point?  Well if it is a momentum stock with poor fundamentals and its multiple finally decides to start reflecting that fact then your in trouble.  At this point you will have to wait for the stock to float back up a bit so that you can sell it.  The price you get may be well below your exit point in some circumstances.  You will have no choice but to sell at this point, the stock had bad fundamentals and now the market has now turned against the stock and it will trend lower in the future.

If you only trade stocks that have good fundamentals and good a corresponding multiple, (PE ratio), if something catastrophic happens and the market crashes gaping down below where your exit price is you will have more options.  The price should recover much more then a stock with poor fundamentals.  You may also have the choice to just add the trade to your portfolio temporarily depending on what drove the price of the stock down dramatically. 

Trading the stocks of strong companies with great fundamentals is a great way to give yourself more options, trade from a position of strength, and most importantly sleep well at night.

Always sell into strength, buy on weakness.

 

The principle of selling into strength and buying on weakness is an important one.  This principle will help you to remain in control of your emotions.  Emotions and investing do not mix, remember that investing is a business and not a gamble.  Investors must follow the rules that they make for each investment or trade.  We must maintain discipline.  This will help us to maximize profits and minimize losses on our trades and investments. 

If there is a trader or investor who can pick the absolute top and bottom in stocks consistently they are keeping their system to themselves.  As long as there is no such system for accurately picking tops and bottoms in stocks we have to come up with price targets that are general.  Before making a buy or a sell you should have an exit strategy and a strategy that will allow you to take profits no matter how well the stock ends up doing for you.

This is not to say that you should not be flexible.  Situations and the market can change drastically in a matter of minutes. When something changes during a trade or investment you may have to change the rules that you set out with when you entered a trade/investment. If you do change the rules of a trade/investment make sure that there is a strong justification for doing so.  A good way to determine this is to explain the reason you are changing the rules to an outside party.  If the person you explain the rule change to does not understand or sign off on the rule change and has a bunch of extra questions, you are most likely making a poor judgment with your rule change.

Unless you are sure that the next few days will lead to an absolute massacre and you know for sure that you must sell into weakness don't sell on a day that your stock goes down.  Normally the market over reacts to bad news and the price gets driven down below where it belongs.  Usually stocks will float back up a bit even if they take a hit on a certain day, this hold especially true for big daily losses.  Wait for a day when the stock is going back up if you decide that it is time to sell it.

If a stock goes up and gets higher then the price target you set as a goal do yourself a favor and take profits.  Keep in mind that the market can jag downward sharply at any time.  If you hit your well thought out price target, congratulations!  Never miss an opportunity to get a big win by selling into strength and hitting your price target.

The markets can be frustrating and make you feel hopeless at times.  They can also be so good that they lead to over confidence. When you feel like the market just won't go up ever again or conversely it will go up forever, feel free to look at the chart of any stock or index.  You will see that nothing ever goes up or down in a straight line.  Never has, never will.

"They" must know something trades.

I was reading an article earlier and I saw this kind of stock trade described and it reminded me how ignorant some investors/traders can be with their hard earned money.  It is hard to imagine the thought process involved with this specific type of "trade" for me, but I will give it a shot.

Some person who dislikes or hates the money that they have accumulated sees an article or views a bit of news or an interview where a hedge fund manager or wealthy investor mentions a stock and then the money hater blindly invests in the stock just based on this information.  I guess that is how this works?  "A fool and his money are soon parted." 

Please do not engage in this type of capital destruction.  Please do your own research and understand how to do research on stocks.  There is plenty of information out there that can help anyone do their due diligence before purchasing even one share of stock.  If you hear about a stock on a television show or read about it in an article, this can be a great place to get an idea about a possible investment.  However, NEVER EVER buy or sell a stock based on what some other person says on television, the internet, etc.

If you feel the need to enter into this type of trade or investment, I have some other investment ideas for you.  1.) Give me your money, I will appreciate it and invest it wisely.  2.) Put it all on black at a roulette table in a casino.  3. Burn the money on fire.  4.) Give the money to a church.

2012 Hang Over

If you have ever drank a large amount of alcohol in a short period of time, I certainly have, then you know what the repercussions feel like.  A massive head ache, bad taste in your mouth, some regrets about taking your pants off at certain points during the evening....  Hang overs suck.  The American consumer has been drunk during this holiday shopping season.  The economy has been bad for years now and Americans are used to spending money.  This has created some pent up demand to go out this Holiday season and spend.  There have been records set this holiday shopping season and huge crowds charging into retailers to spend money.  Not money that they actually have though, a lot of this holiday season has been paid for by credit.  Can we make 'credit' a bad word soon like 'gay' and/or 'retarded'?  It sure needs to be, but anyway.  The American consumer isn't the only spender taking on more debt, the European Union is too.

A European debt crisis or at least painful awakening to the fact they have to make massive reforms and an American consumer waking up to higher credit card balances on December 26th are not factors that will lead to a bull market.  The winter months ahead are looking colder and colder for the market if you ask me.  Oh yeah there is a Presidential election and gridlock in Washington D.C. to look forward to also.

Hangover?  The market is going to wake up from this free spending, good weather, manageable fuel prices Holiday season soon.  When it does it is going to squint at the light, peal its face off the slobber encrusted pillow case, stumble to the bathroom, throw up, and then look in the mirror and see that someone wrote, "Going way lower now!!!" on its forehead with a sharpie.

Dow +337 An Early Christmas Present

It was a good day for the markets on December 20th.  Stronger yields on Spanish bonds and better sentiment led to the markets surging higher.  Any positive news is allowing domestic stocks to charge higher and they should.  Valuations are low and I think that we had a great holiday shopping season.  I believe that the US markets could go even higher then this in the very short term.  By short term I mean days.

That being said, I looked at today as a selling opportunity.  It is like a great Christmas gift from Wall Street.  As I have said in earlier blogs, the situation in Europe must be resolved for the markets to move steadily higher.  Now we also are going to have the added pressure on the markets because of the fight between Obama the Senate and Congress on taxes.  This could force markets lower as once again politicians try to throw a wrench into world markets.  Today the President and the House Speaker where going back and forth on television criticizing each other instead of getting work done on tax cuts and energy policy.  The market dislikes Obama and indecision.  The fact that the Senate and Obama are wrong on this issue is not important.  What is important is that this is another weight that may drag the market lower in the near future.  Plus lets not forget that China is slowing down also.

The markets gave all of us a great early Christmas Present today!  Don't squander this opportunity, you may end up regretting it.

Free Stock Charts? Look No Further Than Stockcharts.com!

I am not an expert at technical analysis, but I plan to be one or at least increase my knowledge of technical analysis in the years to come.  While learning about technical analysis I have found that it is essential to have Stockcharts.com pulled up on the computer so that I can use at it as a reference and learning tool.  Stockcharts.com is free and has detailed customizations that you can use when learning about technical analysis.  EMA, SMA, MACD, OHLC bars, Candlesticks, it is all here for the most part.  Of course you change the duration of the time periods that you want to view on the chart.

Stockcharts.com also has great articles and information on technical and fundamental analysis.  If you click on the 'Chart School' tab you are taken to a portal that will give you a multitude of articles about technical analysis.  I looked through these articles quickly and found that they have great illustrations to go along with the written content.

I have read some of the blogs from the 'Blogs' tab on Stockcharts.com and found that they were informative and had great chart illustrations.  I have enjoyed the content that I found in the blogs section of the site.

There are sparse advertisements on Stockcharts.com, a huge plus.  Nothing pops up on me when I am viewing the content on this site.  Ad pop ups on websites make me want to slap kittens in the face.

There is also content available for paying members that includes more customization options and a membership to the site.  I do not need these extra customizations at this time, but if I ever do need them, Stockcharts.com will be the first place that I sign up for these services on.  I feel like I should already be paying them for the content they provide for free anyway;  no one tell them that though!

Overall I give Stockcharts.com an A.  I can't think of any draw backs to this site.  It has great charts, chart information and technical analysis education, mostly for free.  I highly recommend visiting the site.  You would think that I was on the Stockcharts.com payroll.  I'm not though, the site is just that great!  I have supplied the link below. VISIT IT NOW!  If you need to view some stock charts that is.

Link for article  http://stockcharts.com/

Senate Senility

 "I just had a bowel movement!"

The members of the U.S. Senate have no brains and/or no shame.  They certainly can not care much about the United States or its citizenry.  They just sent a bill to the U.S. Congress that cuts the payroll tax on American workers for two months.  Two months?  That is ridiculous!  How can anyone make a budget or a plan if we have to live two months at a time?  How can businesses plan expansions or hire any employees in a country that makes policies that last for a few months or if we are lucky a year? 

This is the mentality of the U.S. Senate?  Are they making back room deals?  If so who is paying who for what? This horrific legislation doesn't even benefit anyone.  The rich, middle class and poor all get the shaft on this one. Are the Senators who voted for this bill secret Chinese or Russian spys trying to sabotage the U.S. economy?  Are the really senile?  I would love to know.  The most frightening thing is that they actually passed a bill that extended a tax policy for two months!!!  They got a majority.  That is scary.  If someone I knew told me that they had made a decision to make a budget for the first two months of 2012 I would laugh and ask, "Why not budget for the entire year?"  Then I would think to myself, "Whoa I need to figure out a way to politely explain to them that they need to budget for a much longer period of time." Maybe the U.S. Senate is full of super secret senile Chinese agents that would like to go home and celebrate the holidays?  There has to be some explanation for this.  I plan on writing my Senate representatives for the answer.

Thankfully we have a very strong and decisive leader in the White House right now.  Someone who will make sure that we move toward energy independance with an aggressive domestic energy policy.  A man who supports long term fiscal stability, compromise on tax rates, and is focusing like a laser on balancing the U.S. budget and creating jobs.  Oh wait, that's wrong.  Actually Barrack Obama is not doing that.  He is indecisive, i.e. putting off his decision on the Keystone XL pipeline, (or he is using holding his support for it hostage for political purposes and playing games).  He has actually hurt our drive toward energy independence.  Instead of pipelines, Obama is in favor of pipe dreams, Solyndra, wind mills, hugs.  If only our country could be fueled by hugs.  Wait don't suggest that to the President or the left, they may actually spend billions of tax dollars trying to make the dang idea work!

All of this idocracy is crippling the U.S. economy.  We should be recovering but the Congress, Democrats and Republicans, and the extremely hopeless and clueless executive branch are like an anchor tied around our economies waist.  Coupled with the Europeans, who have governments that are just as or even more inept, (the European Union is researching running their countries power grids on tiny cheek kisses as I'm writing this), the current U.S. government has me feeling extremely bearish about 2012.  What good are high yielding defensive stocks going to do for you if they fall to winter 2009 levels?  Better to be in cash and start making a shopping list for late 2012 when there is a possiblity for any change at all.  It looks like the stocks of high quality companies will be on sale by then.  Plus hopefully Obama voters realize that 1.) Obama did not make their college education free 2.)  He did not pay their bills  3.) He did not make any cars that run on hugs.  Any other President has to be better;  right?  Lets hope so, the Senate is obviously an old folks home full of very confused men and women.  Vote against all Senate incumbents in 2012!

U.S. Senate email addresses and phone numbers can be found at the following link - http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm

Spoil yourself this Christmas. Donate to a charity or give of yourself.

Christmas can be a stressful time of year for many people.  It can be easy to lose perspective on what Christmas is all about when you get caught up in the hustle and bustle involved with the holiday season.  Travel, shopping, making plans, attending parties, going to the post office *Facepalm*, bad weather, etc. can add up to a really stressful experience.  Not everyone can work 70 hours a week during the holidays like me.  Working during the holidays is actually less stressful then being on vacation it seems like for many people!

The number one tip for avoiding stress during Christmas is to donate your time and/or money to charity.  This will help you remember the true spirit of Christmas.  Although it may seem like the reason for Christmas is to line up at Best Buy ten hours before the Black Friday opening allows you to buy a massive television for half price if you don't get trampled, the real reason is to celebrate the birth of Christ and what his life stood for.  Christ stood for helping and loving others, especially those who needed help the most.  He stood for treating your family and neighbors with love and respect and enjoying their company.  What better way to celebrate this occasion then doing the same thing Christ would have done to celebrate his own birthday?  Give to charity, help someone who needs it, spend quality time with your family and friends, or all of the above.

After I give to charity, even adding an extra few dollars to a purchase for a charity when purchasing some item, I always feel happier.  I feel a lot happier after I am able to truly help someone out.  Whether it is shoveling snow for someone who can't handle that chore anymore, or going out of my way to help one of my co-workers by taking on some of their work load on, it is always great to give.  There is no better way to be in the Christmas spirit and make yourself happy then giving of yourself.

If you are going to give to a specific charity, you can check them out first.  Unfortunately, not all charitable organizations are on the up and up.  I have included a link to a website that rates and tracks charities at the bottom of this post.  If you go to this site you will be able to check out a charity before donating so you can ensure that your money goes to the people who need it and not someone who is dishonest.

For anyone who has read this far and doesn't like Christmas or Christians, have a Happy Holiday season and please donate to charity or give to the needy anyway!

http://www.charitynavigator.org/

MSN Money

Do you have a specific place that you like to visit if you hear about a stock and you want to look it up quickly?  A place that you go to first for general information on a stock?  When I jump on the internet I always to to MSN Money.com.  I think that this may be because MSN is the first place I ever looked at stock information and now it is like an old friend.  I like the StockScouter ranking that MSN has.  Although I would not invest in a stock just based on the StockScouter number or report, it does tell me if the stock is worth looking into generally.  If I like a stock and the StockScouter gives it a low rating, then it gives me something to look into and think about.

The general look of the actual quote page is nice on MSN.  It has an easy to read format, it is organized, relatively easy to navigate and the general information about the stock is right on the main quote page.  I like the small chart that they have that is click-able and once clicked on takes you to a chart page with some more customization options and details.  Under the small chart there are articles relating to the stock.  This is a great feature that MSN shares with the general stock information sites I visit.  When viewing MSN Money pages I am not overwhelmed with advertising or pop up ads, no one likes pop up adds!  This is a great feature of the site and something that can ruin the experience of other financial sites.

MSN has good articles and columnist content.  The columnists, led for the most part by Jim Jubak, do a good job and have some well written and informative content on the site.  The market update of market action is concise and easy to read from briefing.com.  I normally read the market update once the markets have closed for the day.  It does update through out the day which is a nice feature.  Commodity prices, currency rates and world markets are also easy to access on MSN.  Another big plus is that MSN keeps track of the last stock quotes that you have looked up.  This information is kept under the Recent Quotes tab on the middle right hand side of the screen.  There is even a customizable Watch List tab.

The downsides to MSN start with the portfolio manager which is okay, but not as good as the managers on other sites in my opinion.  That being said it has improved over the years and it is free, which is essential.  I would like to see the P/E information on the stock quote page up above by the price instead of having to scroll down to view it.  The charts on MSN.com are rather small and basic, if you like technical analysis you will need to go else where.  The charts and customizations offered aren't bad, but they are basic.  Finally, if you want to read a transcript of the companies past earning reports, just go to Seeking Alpha.  The reports and company filings are a genuine pain to view.  I think that MSN could improve by highlighting and stream lining this information for its readers.

Overall I give MSN Money a B.  It is an old favorite and has improved over the years.  The link to MSN Money stocks is listed below.

http://money.msn.com/stocks/

Europe is continuing to look bad.

All bets for the dead of winter are off for traders.  The FED and an assortment of other nations propped up European Union and the failing Euro a couple weeks ago.  This gave the EU a chance to get their act together, solidify their banks, and show that they were serious about fixing their debt and spending problems.  They were thanked by a European Union holding a conference were they did not accomplish anything except ensuring that the United Kingdom would not fully endorse the austerity measures proposed by the EU.

Until we can get a solve on the SPIIFS (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, France, Super Stuid Greece), the US markets will not be able to go much higher.  They will continue to be weighed down by the US financials which are levered to Europe.  Plus China is in a slow down.  This makes the outlook for early 2012 bleak.

I think that there is still a decent chance to get some gains in strong American stocks, retailers mostly, because I feel that we had a great holiday season in 2011.  I will be looking for a decent run up in the next couple weeks that hopefully allows me to grab some quick profits before the long cold hard winter is really upon us and the European debt crisis tears the markets down to lower levels.  One really bad day in the next couple weeks will force me to rethink that strategy.  Hopefully, I am correct about the strong holiday season and Europe doesn't boil over until we get into January.  This will give me a chance to transition into a cash position on strength. There has to be lower levels coming so unless you have some good long term positions it is time to protect capital.

Hopefully, there will be a capitulation on the Euro and the EU over the winter so that the markets can move forward.  This problem has to be solved for the US indexes to go significantly higher. Once I am mostly in cash I will look to try to trade a bit on the dips and rips while I watch the stocks of great companies go lower and lower.  The more the market goes down the better the buying opportunity will be come spring and early summer. 

Which Republican Presidential Candidate Would Be The Best For The Economy?

As anyone can tell from the picture above I know that Obama has been poison for the U.S. and Global economy.  His stimulus package burned 1 trillion dollars on fire.  Obama's health care bill has raised health care costs.  His lack of leadership led to the first U.S. credit down grade in history.  He has stood in the way of U.S. energy independence time and time again.  He did not even punish the financial industry that drove us into the mortgage crisis.  Plus, you would think a liberal would at least go after the investment bankers who were responsible for all of the CDOs and credit default swaps that were way too risky and caused the mortgage meltdown in '08.  Until you realize that Goldman Sachs and the financial industry own Obama and he is too ignorant of finance to understand what a derivative is.

So I probably won't vote for Obama in 2012.....  I'm not overly excited about any of the GOP nominees.  I think Gingrich is the smartest, Romney is the steadiest and most electable, Bachman is the most fiery, Santorum is the most genuine, Ron Paul wins the more niave then Neville Chamberlain award, Huntsman is on the Chinese pay roll, and Rick Perry is just like George W. Bush minus the brains.

That being said, Gingrich and Romney could be okay Presidents and they are the most likely to win.   Either of them will be vastly better for the economy than Obama has been.  Both of them will lend some stability to the economy where Obama lends indecision and inaction.  Both of them are pro private sector where as Obama is pro government sector.  Both of them have experience where Obama is the public speaker in chief.  Both will allow America to gain energy independence.

Do yourself a favor, follow the Presidential race and participate in politics.  Vote, it is your right and your responsibility.  Even for citizens who will vote for Obama.  For those people, I'm sure that Obama will close Gitmo, take on greedy big business, raise taxes, and balance the budget in his second term?   Please visit the links below and read the main players stance on the issues.  I read the candidates stances on taxes.  I like Romney's more then the plan put forward by Gingrich.

Newt Gingrich
http://www.newt.org/get-involved-now
Mitt Romney
http://www.mittromney.com/s/welcome
Rick Perry
http://pbskids.org/curiousgeorge/
Jon Huntsman
http://english.gov.cn/
Ron Paul
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for_our_time

Super Risk, Big Reward?

I was looking at YONG a Chinese fertilizer stock that I watch/kinda like a tiny bit.  This stock has a high beta and looking at the basic numbers seems like it could be a strong outperforming stock.  Due to the sector it is in and the growth in China and is trading in a well defined range.  I like it at below $4 and then as a sell at around $6 as a swing trade.  On the surface it looks like this stock has huge upside.  But then again do the numbers really look good?  China has a one party political system and no real SEC like the U.S. does.  So their companies can just make numbers up for all the rest of the world knows.  How much do you trust the Chinese Communist Party?  They don't let people look at Google in their country and they use nuclear weapons to mine for coal......  Unless your an expert on the ground or you feel like taking a big risk on a technical move you should leave Chinese Stocks alone.  It just doesn't get any riskier, trashier, or corrupt;  until Somalia builds an Index to trade in at least.

Welcome to 17and17.

Welcome and thank you for looking at 17and17.  This blog is about accumlating capital.  I personally focus mostly on the U.S. Stock Market at this time.  I am developing a strategy to position trade and swing trade securities.  I am still new to the game so to speak;  I know the basics.  Every week I am learning more though and I will become an expert in time.

I will also write about politics, budgeting and other misc. subjects if they relate to becoming successful.  This blog is about making money into more money.

I will not give out specific stock tips however.  There are too many idiots in the world who would actually take a stock 'tip' from some blog that some guy they don't know wrote and buy the stock with out even knowing what MACD is.  Tips are for waiters, not for purchasing or selling stocks.  I may write about bad stocks or stocks that I don't like anymore at times.  This is justifiable because if you can short a stock and understand the mechanics behind shorting stocks or buying puts then you BETTER know not to take random stock tips from strangers. 

Feel free to write me suggestions, criticisms or other comments.  A couple ground rules for that: 1. Don't be abusive because my Mother reads this blog.  She wanted to run on the football field and stab the other children in the neck when I played little league football and I got knocked over.  Enough said on #1 then.  2.) Don't say horribly bad things about Jim Cramer!  Criticism is okay but keep it respectful.  3.)  Don't try to post stock tips in the comments on this page!  4.) Be courteous to others.  Debate is welcome, hiding behind keyboard tough guys are not.

Lastly, because I work for a television station let me say that the U.S. Constitution doesn't give you the right to say or do anything on this page, and I do not believe that you have a lawyer to sue me if I change, add, or break a rule.  Plus whether I own, buy, or sell a stock I discuss on my blog is my business.  That being said I will always do my best to be ethical, I live 1,700 miles from Manhattan.